review Naked Statistics 103

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review Naked Statistics 103 Ó ❆ [KINDLE] ✿ Naked Statistics By Charles Wheelan ➟ – Johns-cycling-diary.co.uk Once considered tedious the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian chief economist at Google has actually called “sexy” From batting averages and political polls to g Once considered tedious the NsAnd in Wheelan’s trademark style there’s not a dull page in sight You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem and a head scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal and you’ll come away with insights each time With the wit accessibility and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential formerly unglamorous discipline to life. This is not the most exciting book ever but it's way exciting than you would think for a book about statistics More importantly people YOU NEED TO KNOW THIS STUFF This is how you separate the lies from the damn lies from the nonsense that TV news shows spew at you I don't care if you read THIS one but please just fucking read a book about statistics THANK you

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Once considered tedious the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian chief economist at Google has actually called “sexy” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research the real world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like What is causing the rising incidence of autism As best selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics the right data an. There are many popular science books that try to teach basic statistical concepts but often than not they fall into the awful popular science trope of narrative over concepts that Malcolm Gladwell introduced into science writing and then Jonah Lehrer perfected into an awful horrible art Take Nate Silver's lauded book 'The Signal and the Noise' Each chapter is about some specific area of prediction and along the way some statistical concepts are introduced but rarely elaborated I will note that Nate Silver only rarely mentions what the expert had for lunch during their interview unlike much worse science books that presume we are interested in the culinary habits of scientists In that book Silver also tries to make a case for Bayesian statistics over traditional statistics but because the explanation of the concepts is not very rigorous we don't get so much an argument as an opinionCharles Wheelan's book is a fantastic antidote to modern popular science writing and conceptual hand waving In a nutshell the book is a stats 101 course without the math Unlike say popular physics books where understanding can only be vaguely metaphorical at best without knowing uite a bit of advanced mathematics giving the illusion of knowledge; yes you've read The Elegant Universe but sorry you still know bupkis about string theory statistical concepts can be explained and even employed in a critical fashion without much math at all Knowing that variation is much informative than simply the mean doesn't reuire that you know calculus Likewise for understanding simple experimental design and most experimental designs are simple state a null apply Student's t test and you've got 70% of published scientific papers Of course saying that something can be explained without math is not the same as actually doing it proficiently but Wheelan has excelled here The examples are all intuitive and the writing is clear and easy Perhaps importantly Wheelan spends an entire chapter on the Central Limit Theorem halfway through the book and then uses that to explain statistical inference sampling and regression Giving the Central Limit Theorem such pride of place is appropriate but is often neglected in basic statistics textbooks not to mention popular statistics books The book is not flawless but the uibbles are minor First Wheelan has a silly sense of humor that intrudes into the book too often culminating in several pointless footnotes that only serve to extend jokes Second although there are a few mathematical appendices for various chapters they are generally far too short and actually need math than they have As it is they are likely to confuse than helpIn general Wheelan's book is a must read for anyone that hasn't taken a basic stats course so every journalist ever or can't remember much from when they did take it

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Naked StatisticsD a few well chosen statistical tools can help us answer these uestions and For those who slept through Stats this book is a lifesaver Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis He clarifies key concepts such as inference correlation and regression analysis reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny uestio. I have already talked about statistics here and not in good terms It was mostly related to Nicholas Nassim Taleb`s works The Black Swan and Antifragile But this does not mean statistics are bad They may just be dangerous when used stupidly It is what Charles Wheelan explains among other things in Naked Statistics Naked Statistics belongs to the group of Popular Science Americans often have a talent to explain science for a general audience Wheelan has it too So if you do not know about or hate the concepts of meanaverage standard deviation probability regression analysis and even central limit theorem you may change your mind after reading his book Also you will be explained the Monty Hall problem or euivalent Three Prisoners problem or why it is sometimes better even if counterintuitive to change your mindFinally Wheelan illustrates why statistics are useless and even dangerous when the data used are badly built or irrelevant even if the mathematical tools are correctly used Just one example in scientific research which is another topic of concern to me This phenomenon can plague even legitimate research The accepted convention is to reject a hypothesis when we observe something that would happen by chance only 1 in 20 times or less if the hypothesis were true Of course if we conduct 20 studies or if we include 20 junk variables in a single regression euation then on average we will get 1 bogus statistically significant finding The New York Times magazine captured this tension wonderfully in a uotation from Richard Peto a medical statistician and epidemiologist Epidemiology is so beautiful and provides such an important perspective on human life and death but an incredible amount of rubbish is publishedEven the results of clinical trials which are usually randomized experiments and therefore the gold standard of medical research should be viewed with some skepticism In 2011 the Wall Street Journal ran a front page story on what it described as one of the dirty little secrets of medical research Most results including those that appear in top flight peer reviewed journals can't be reproduced If researchers and medical journals pay attention to positive findings and ignore negative findings then they may well publish the one study that finds a drug effective and ignore the nineteen in which it has no effect On top of that researchers may have some conscious or unconscious bias either because of a strongly held prior belief or because a positive finding would be better for their career No one ever gets rich or famous by proving what doesn't cure cancer Dr Ionnadis a Greek doctor and epidemiologist estimates that roughly half of the scientific papers published will eventually turn out to be wrong Pages 222 223